المصادر الرئيسية للنمو الاقتصادي في المملكة العربية السعودية : دراسة قياسية خلال الفترة 2000-2023

د. الوليد قسوم  ميساوي; د.محمد جعفر هني

doi:10.33948/ESJ-KSU-18-1-2

Authors

Loualid Guessoum Messaoui Associate Professor, Department of Economics, College of Business, Islamic University of Madinah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Author
Mohamed Jafar Henni Associate Professor, Department of Economics, College of Business, Islamic University of Madinah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33948/ESJ-KSU-18-1-2

Keywords:

Economic growth sources, ARDL model, economic diversification, Saudi Vision 2030, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

This study aims to identify the main sources of economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia over the period (2000-2023), It further examines the extent to which economic growth responds to changes in these sources in the long run.The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results indicate no evidence of short-run Granger causality from the explanatory variables to real GDP per capita.In the long run, the findings reveal a weak and less-than-proportional response of real GDP per capita to its main determinants, namely final consumption expenditure and total exports and imports of goods and services. Specifically, a 1% increase in final consumption expenditure leads to a 0.31% increase in real GDP per capita, while a 1% increase in total exports results in a 0.15% increase. In contrast, a 1% rise in total imports of goods and services leads to a 0.09% decline in real GDP per capita.