Climate Smart Agriculture in Egypt: Assessing Food Security with CGE and IMPACT Models

Abstract

Climate change is a global threat and is expected to reduce crop yield and income. This study aimed to develop indicators for the 'triple-win' nexus of productivity, livelihood improvement, reduced GHG emissions, and water footprints for climate-resilient practices. Two models were used: the IMPACT Climate and Hydrology Model to examine the link between climate change and crop productivity and the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the effects of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) on the agricultural sector. By 2050, climate change is projected to significantly lower crop productivity in Egypt, increasing commodity prices and worsening consumption, income, terms of trade, and food insecurity. However, the combined scenario addressing climate change and CSA showed that adaptation measures can mitigate these impacts and deliver modest benefits. These indicators reveal that CSA can partially restore growth above the baseline, emphasizing the importance of incorporating CSA into agricultural investment plans. CSA not only responds to the challenges of climate change, but also offers immediate advantages, as its technological benefits outweigh the negative impacts of climate change. Thus, CSA has emerged as a viable strategy for agricultural investment and future resilience.