Journal of Economic Studies is a (periodical - scientific – Refereed) publication that is issued biannually (June and December) by the Saudi Economic Association (SEA), at King Saud University. The first issue of the Journal was published in 1998.
Saudi Economic Association – King Saud University. All rights reserved to the journal. No part of this journal may be reproduced, republished, or copied in any form or by any means without written permission from the Editor-in-Chief.
Remittances and Economic Growth in North Africa: A Panel Cointegration Analysis
This article explores the short-term and long-term impacts of remittance inflows on economic growth in five North African countries (NAC): Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and Sudan. Using annual panel data from 2000–2020 and employing the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (1999), the research finds that remittance inflows have both significant long-term and short-term positive effects on economic growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in remittance inflows results in a 0.025% increase in economic growth. Additionally, other macroeconomic variables, such as capital formation and labor force participation, also contribute significantly to economic growth. The study reveals that in the long term, remittances promote investment activities, while in the short term, remittances primarily boost private consumption. The findings emphasize the need for policymakers to develop economic policies that encourage remittance inflows and direct them towards productive investment in the real economy. Recommendations include improving financial systems, reducing transaction costs, and implementing policies that stimulate remittance inflows for sustainable development.
Copyright (c) 2024 Journal of Economic Studies
Insights into Saudi Arabia's Economic Transformation: Renewable Energy, FDI, and GDP Dynamics
This study analyzes the dynamic interplay among key economic indicators—Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Exports (Exp), Government Consumption Expenditure (GC), and Renewable Energy consumption (RE)—and their effects on Saudi Arabia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2000 to 2021. Using a comprehensive econometric framework that includes Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) analysis, Vector Autoregression (VAR) models, and Granger Causality tests, this research uncovers the economic drivers shaping Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030. The study finds that FDI and renewable energy consumption significantly predict GDP growth. While many studies have explored the impact of various economic indicators on growth, definitive findings on their predictive relationships with GDP growth in Saudi Arabia are limited. This study fills this gap by highlighting significant predictive relationships, particularly how FDI and renewable energy consumption can drive GDP growth. The results suggest that policies promoting FDI, and renewable energy investments could greatly enhance Saudi Arabia’s economic development, aligning with Vision 2030. A novel aspect of this research is its identification of structural changes in economic relationships following major renewable energy policy initiatives introduced in 2019-2020, providing empirical evidence of policy impacts on economic dynamics. These findings not only contribute to academic discussions on economic diversification but also offer actionable insights for policymakers to optimize Saudi Arabia's transition towards a more diversified and sustainable economy.
Impact of Public Health Indicators on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia
The study examines the impact of public health indicators on economic growth rates in the KSA, during the period 2000-2023 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) has been described to express the relationship between economic growth- measured by GDP per Capita as the dependent variable, and public health indicators including Current Health Expenditure, Number of Health Insurance Documents, Number of Doctors, Number of Beds, Number of Users of Safely Managed Sanitation Services, Number of Clean Fuel Users as independent variables. The study’s Results demonstrate a positive long-term relationship between economic growth and the following variables: Current Health Expenditure, Number of Health Insurance Documents, and the Number of Doctors. Furthermore, a positive short-term relationship was observed between economic growth and the Number of Health Insurance Documents, the Number of Doctors, the Number of Users of Safely Managed Sanitation Services. However, Contrary to expectations, the study found an inverse relationship between economic growth and the Number of Beds in both the long and short term. Finally, the study concluded that economic growth is not affected by Current Health Expenditure in the short term, the Number of Users of Safely Managed Sanitation Services in the long term, and the Number of Clean Fuel Users in either term. Based on these results, the study recommends enhancing Current Health Expenditure to improve quality of life and productivity rates, adopting policies and procedures to ensure the equitable distribution of medical human resources, and the need for further research into public health indicators and their association with economic growth rates in Saudi Arabia.
Measuring The Impact Of The Quality of Forward-Looking Disclosure in annual reports On The firm Value: An Applied Study On Companies Listed In The Egyptian Stock Market
This research aims to measure the effect of the quality of forward - looking Information in annual reports on company Value in the Egyptian stock market, to test the study's hypotheses, the researcher used the content analysis method to obtain the necessary data from the financial statements, board reports and annual reports of companies. To measure the quality of forward - looking information disclosure, the researcher created a weighted index consisting of 60 items and divided it into forward - looking financial information and forward - looking information non-financial information. The study sample consisted of all the companies listed in the EGX 100 index during the period from 2015: 2019, and the final sample size was 62 companies with 310 views. The most important findings of the study include the existence of a positive relationship between the quality of forward - looking Information. While the that the size of the company is an important factor affecting the quality of disclosure of forward - looking Information, while the researcher did not find any relationship between the quality of disclosure of forward - looking Information and the firm value.
Disclosure quality of forward - Looking information
Internal determinants of the profitability of Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia (2005-2021): An Empirical Study
This study aimed to reveal the internal determinants affecting the profitability of Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia. The study adopted the descriptive analytical approach by analyzing the data available in the annual reports of those banks. The study was applied to a sample of (4) Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia, namely: Al Rajhi Bank, Bank Al Jazira, Alinma Bank, and Bank Al Bilad. The results of the study showed a positive impact of the internal determinants represented by bank size (Z), capital ratio (CAD), and asset management (EAM) on the profitability of Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia, while it was found that the internal determinant Operating efficiency (OE) negatively affects the profitability of Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia. It has also been shown that enhancing capital adequacy (CAD), increasing the deposit ratio (DR) and asset management ratio (EAM) contribute to enhancing profitability in those banks. In light of the results, the study recommended conducting further studies on other internal determinants and external determinants affecting the profitability of Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia.
The Impact of External Debt on the Egyptian Balance of Payments during the period (2003-2022)
This study aimed to analyse and estimate the impact of external debt on the Egyptian balance of payments during the period (2003-2022). The research employed a descriptive-analytical approach and utilised the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, using quarterly data for the model variables. The study concluded that external debt inflows lacked productive impact. The ARDL estimation results showed that the external debt to GDP ratio, net unilateral current transfers, and net foreign direct investment positively impacted the balance of payments. In contrast, the external debt service to exports ratio, the trade openness index, and the exchange rate negatively impacted the balance of payments. Therefore, the study recommends several actions: investing borrowed funds in export-oriented projects, negotiating the rescheduling of external debt, or converting part of it into investments in the tourism sector—an area where Egypt holds a competitive advantage. Additionally, it is essential to establish a limit on foreign borrowing that aligns with the economy's repayment capacity.
Testing the Triple Deficit Hypothesis: The Case of The Jordanian Economy
Jordan faces a chronic deterioration in its Budget Balance (BB), Current Account Balance (CAB), and Private Saving-Investment Gap (PSGAP). This poses a significant threat to economic stability, growth, employment, and future generations in Jordan. This study assesses the Triple Deficit Hypothesis (TDH) validity in Jordanian economy, an extension of the twin deficit hypothesis incorporating the saving-investment gap. By using annual time series data from 1980 to 2022, Granger Causality has been conducted, indicating that the TDH is not valid for Jordan, as the test results show one-way causality from BB to CAB, another from PSGAP to CAB, and a two-way causality between BB and PSGAP. In addition, the study Employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method, which identifies a statistically significant positive relationship between CAB and BB, supporting the twin deficit hypothesis in Jordan. Furthermore, a statistically positive relationship between CAB and PSGAP is found. Two dummy variables were combined, (DI) for the IMF-supported programs and (D2) for pegging the dinar exchange rate to the US dollar to measure the impact of each on the CAB. Results indicate a positive but statistically insignificant effect of the IMF’s programs, contrasting with a positive and statistically significant effect attributed to exchange rate pegging.
Impact of Stock Market Dynamics on Saudi Arabia's Economic Landscape: A 2000-2022 Analysis
This study investigates the nexus between Stock Market Dynamics and economic health in Saudi Arabia from 2000 to 2022, considering its heavy dependence on oil. Employing methods like Enhanced Dickey-Fuller, Engle-Granger, and OLS regression, it aims to elucidate how the stock market influences economic growth in oil-reliant economies. Various factors, including the Market Cap index, liquidity ratio, Human Development Index (HDI), and export volume, were analysed. Unexpectedly, traditional indicators like market size and liquidity showed minimal impact on growth, challenging conventional assumptions about the stock market's role in economic expansion. These findings offer valuable insights into Saudi Arabia's economic dynamics, guiding policy formulation and investment strategies. Furthermore, the study highlights the crucial role of exports, especially from the oil sector, in driving economic growth in both short and long terms. Policy recommendations emphasize initiatives to diversify exports and invest in alternative energy sources to mitigate oil price volatility. Additionally, while the Human Development Index exhibited a significant positive effect in the short term, its long-term impact diminished. This underscores the need for strategies that promote human development alongside economic diversification for sustainable growth. As Saudi Arabia pursues Vision 2030 to reduce oil dependency, strategic policymaking balancing human development with economic diversification becomes imperative for long-term stability and prosperity.
Revisiting the interest rate, foreign exchange rate, and bank stock return nexus in Saudi Arabia: evidence from the wavelet approach
This study analyzes the relationship between interest rates, exchange rates, and the bank stock return in Saudi Arabia. We use both traditional and novel wavelet analyses to revisit how these macroeconomic variables interact and influence each other in short-, mid-, and long-term periods, and during specific crisis events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The results reveal that all the variables are significantly related in the long and short term, while the interaction among the variables differs over time and frequency domains. In particular, interest rates displayed high volatility during COVID-19, while exchange rates and the banking index showed lower volatility. In addition, interest and exchange rates demonstrated a positive correlation and increased volatility from 2018 to 2020, with the return of the banking index taking a leading position during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, this study highlights the risks and opportunities for Saudi Arabia's distinctive dual banking system arising from macroeconomic fluctuations. Policymakers, regulators, and bankers can utilize these insights to make informed strategic and operational decisions regarding their approach to the country's dynamic economic environment and distinct banking landscape.
Explore the Effect of Strategy Contents on Firm's Innovation Performance: Modeling Using PLS-SEM Approach
This study explores the impact of strategic performance measures on the connection between organizational content types and innovation performance. Utilizing survey responses from 216 Saudi Arabian companies, structural equation modeling was applied. Findings reveal that a proactive strategy negatively affects process innovation but positively influences product innovation, while a defensive strategy shows a similar pattern. Conversely, a reactive strategy positively impacts both process and product innovation. Embracing proactive, defensive, or reactive approaches positively influences efficiency and effectiveness. However, efficiency negatively impacts innovation, while effectiveness has a positive effect. The study suggests that adopting diverse strategy content types provides a competitive edge, reflected in strategic performance measures. It acknowledges potential benefits and challenges, contributing empirical evidence to the understanding of the relationships between strategy content, performance metrics, and innovation in Saudi Arabian companies.
The Impact of the Digital Economy on Economic Activity
This study aimed to review the level of the digital economy in Arab countries, analyze the trends of indicators related to the digital economy, and estimate its impact on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Arab countries from 2012 to 2022. The analysis was based on Panel Data. Two models were constructed in this study. In the first model, a Composite Benchmark Index was developed, which aggregated a set of individual indicators measuring performance across various domains in the digital economy. The impact of this index on economic activity in Arab countries was estimated. The second model relied on the Arab Digital Economy Index issued by the Arab Union for Digital Economy to measure the impact of the digital economy on economic activity in Arab countries. The results showed a positive and significant relationship between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Composite Benchmark Index of the digital economy. An increase of one percentage point in the composite digital economy index led to a growth of 0.41 percentage points in GDP. also showed that a one percentage point increase in the Arab Digital Economy Index led to an economic growth increase of 0.12 percentage points.
The Impact Applying Electronic Governance in Enhancing Transparency and Disclosure in Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia: A Case Study of Al Bilad Bank
This study aimed to show the impact of the application of electronic governance in enhancing transparency and disclosure in Islamic banks in Saudi Arabia through a case study of Bank Albilad, the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach, where a questionnaire was designed and distributed to (351) employees of the bank, and the study found a statistically significant impact of the dimensions of electronic governance on enhancing transparency and disclosure, The results of multiple linear regression analysis showed that the dimensions of e-governance (discipline, justice, accountability, responsibility, and independence) have a positive impact on transparency and disclosure in Saudi Islamic banks, and the results showed that the accountability dimension is the most influential dimension on transparency and disclosure, followed by justice, independence, responsibility, and discipline respectively. The study recommended the need for Saudi Islamic banks to enhance transparency and disclosure by adopting a strategy aimed at increasing the effectiveness and application of e-governance.
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Saudi Stock Market across Different Sectors (TADAWUL) (An Empirical Study Using the NARDL Model)
This study scrutinizes the asymmetric impact of COVID-19 on the Saudi stock market and various sectors, specifically focusing on the TASI (Tadawul All Share Index) and their response to policies restricting international mobility. The analysis employs the NARDL (Non-Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, covering the period from March 5, 2020, to August 26, 2020. The findings suggest that the TASI index, including the media and food sectors, does not demonstrate a significant long-term response to confirmed COVID-19 infections. Conversely, the health, energy, and insurance sectors exhibit asymmetric and significant relationship with the health crisis. Additionally, the study reveals a significant and positive effect of international travel restrictions on the insurance, banking, and telecommunication sectors.
Copyright (c) 2023 Journal of Economic Studies
The Impact of The Development of The Digital Economy on The Quality of Education Outputs in Saudi Arabia (2001-2021)
The study aimed to analyze and highlight the impact of the development of the digital economy on the quality of education outputs during the period (2001-2021). The main contribution of this study was that it dealt with the direct relationship between the digital economy and educational outcomes in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as previous studies were limited to studying the impact of the digital economy on economic growth as a whole and other variables. The research methodology relied on the analytical descriptive method in presenting theories and analyzing data, in addition to the standard method for estimating the relationship in the long and short term between the variables in question by the method of cointegration and the error correction model. The result was that the digital economy adversely affects productivity in the long term, but in the short term there is no effect.
The impact of logistics services on exports in selected countries
The study aimed to estimate the impact of logistics services on exports. The study relied on the standard approach using the panel data time series methodology, in estimating the impact of the sub-indicators of logistical performance on the exports of some countries, which topped the first positions according to the classification of logistics Agility for Emerging Markets, during the period (2007-2022). It turned out that the most appropriate model is the FEM, and the results came with a positive effect of each of: The Customs, Tracking and Tracking, and the Timeliness index, on exports in the countries under study, as well as the opposite effect of the Infrastructure index. While the results revealed that the indicators of International Shipments and Quality of logistics services did not affect exports in those countries. Accordingly, the study recommends that countries reconsider strategies related to the quality of their logistical services, in order to contribute to raising logistical performance. It is also desirable for countries to explain the reasons for the decline or improvement in their logistical performance, after each issuance of the index.
The role of endowments in increasing the gross domestic product in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
The endowment has great importance in the development of societies. Therefore, research comes to identify the role of the endowment in increasing GDP, based on economic and statistical data. Using a standard model that shows the relationship between the dependent variable (GDP), and the independent variables under study in Saudi for the period (1994:2022). The standard model equation has been estimated by (ARDL) Model to verify the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the independent variables and GDP and to verify this relationship by the error correction model (ECM). Endowment institutions are the pillars of economic and social life. There is a great opportunity for the endowment sector to regain its vital position and become a major contributor to the non-profit sector. As Saudi Vision 2030 aims to increase the contribution of this sector to GDP from 0.3% to 5%. The endowment has multiple positive economic and social effects, as there is a positive relationship in the short run between the collective, social, and personal service variables and GDP. Among the most important challenges facing non-profit sectors, financial flows at a rate of 30.16%. The research recommends the issuance of legislation that guarantees good investment in the endowment, its financial independence, the development of its management, and the qualification of its cadres, under the umbrella of endowment governance.
Examining the effect of banking performance on the economic growth of Saudi Arabia: A Panel ARDL Approach
This study examines the effect of banking performance on the economic growth of Saudi Arabia. The study employs panel autoregression distributed lag approach by considering 12 banks for the period between 2000-2018. The panel unit root analysis shows a mixed result of the stationary of the variable. The dynamic fixed effects (DFE) estimates show that bank performances as proxied by i.e., banks’ asset and net interest margin have long-run and short-run effects on economic growth whereas the earlier one has more influence than the latter one. In addition to this, we also observed that oil price, as a control variable, has both long-run and short-run significant and positive relationship with country’s economic growth. Thus, we recommend that banking regulation and its related policy should be supportive of the expansion of banking sector which has direct linkage with the economic growth of Saudi Arabia.
Impact of Military Spending on Economic Growth In Jordan during 1999 – 2020
The study aimed to measure the impact of military spending on economic growth in Jordan during 1999-2020. ARDL methodology to estimate short and long-term relationships and Granger causality analysis. The study concluded that military and education spending negatively affect economic growth in the short and long run. The cointegration between the variables in the long term proved. The study concluded that military spending would discourage allocating of scared resources toward more productive fields and purposes. The vital result says that increased spending on education is another way to lose scarce economic resources and a decreasing purchasing power of Jordanians than spending on the Military. The study presents many recommendations, notably the need to reduce military spending and allocate resources toward the most productive industries in the economy.
Modeling the Future of Saudi Arabia’s Economy: An Assessment of Time Series Forecasting Methods Up to 2030
This paper compares three well-known time series forecasting models, ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average), NAR (nonlinear autoregressive), and RNN (recurrent neural network), to predict what Saudi Arabia's GDP will be by 2030. Given the nation's significant economic transformation under its Vision 2030 reform plan, accurate GDP forecasting becomes crucial for strategic planning and policy formulation. The study uses historical economic data, augmented by global economic conditions and national economic policies, to model and forecast future economic scenarios. We utilize the ARIMA model for its proficiency in handling linear time-series data with seasonal variations, and we explore the NAR and RNN models for their capacity to process nonlinear dynamics and complex temporal dependencies, respectively. The paper evaluates each model's predictive accuracy using root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2), providing a comprehensive overview of their performance in forecasting Saudi Arabia's GDP. The findings aim to guide policymakers and economic stakeholders in selecting the most appropriate forecasting tool, given Saudi Arabia's dynamic, rapidly evolving economic landscape. The results show that ARIMA models are good at. Still, RNN models, especially those with LSTM architectures, are better at predicting long-term economic trends, which is important for making sureshort-term predictions. Still, RNN models, especially those with LSTM architectures, are better at predicting long-term economic trends, which is important for ensuring that the strategic goals of Vision 2030 are met.
Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of Economic Studies
Climate Smart Agriculture in Egypt: Assessing Food Security with CGE and IMPACT Models
Climate change is a global threat and is expected to reduce crop yield and income. This study aimed to develop indicators for the 'triple-win' nexus of productivity, livelihood improvement, reduced GHG emissions, and water footprints for climate-resilient practices. Two models were used: the IMPACT Climate and Hydrology Model to examine the link between climate change and crop productivity and the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the effects of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) on the agricultural sector. By 2050, climate change is projected to significantly lower crop productivity in Egypt, increasing commodity prices and worsening consumption, income, terms of trade, and food insecurity. However, the combined scenario addressing climate change and CSA showed that adaptation measures can mitigate these impacts and deliver modest benefits. These indicators reveal that CSA can partially restore growth above the baseline, emphasizing the importance of incorporating CSA into agricultural investment plans. CSA not only responds to the challenges of climate change, but also offers immediate advantages, as its technological benefits outweigh the negative impacts of climate change. Thus, CSA has emerged as a viable strategy for agricultural investment and future resilience.
Logistics Services and Their Impact on Saudi Arabia's Exports : An Analytical Econometric Study for the Period (2007-2023)
Through the past three decades, most of the world’s economies have focused on the importance of logistic services and their development, which has prompted the Kingdom of Saudia Arabia to focus on the performance level of its logistics and rely on it as an effective solution for developing its exports. The study aimed to analyze the development of both: Saudi exports and the overall Logistics Performance Index (LPI) along with its sub-indicators in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the period (2007–2023). It also sought to measure the impact of the LPI on exports for a selected group of countries. The deductive approach and both the descriptive analytical method and quantitative analysis were used. The study found sever results, the most important of which are the following : Saudi Arabia's reliance on merchandise exports is significantly greater than its service exports, where The average share of merchandise exports to total exports during the study period was 94%, while the share of service exports was 6%. Furthermore, the econometric model showed a significant positive relationship between the Logistics Performance Index and exports for the selected group of countries. The study also provided several recommendations, the most important being that developing countries should improve their logistics performance by developing the infrastructure for all modes of transport, thereby contributing to an increase in their exports.
The AI Revolution in Labor: Navigating Job Transformation, Economic Impacts, and Skill Evolution
This research paper analyzes the applicability of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a transformative force across the world's labor market, job roles, and skill requirements across different economic sectors. We analyze how AI is changing not only employmentthe labor market and wages and income distribution. We find AI has, by nature, a dual purpose in the labor market. It causes unemployment in routine and low-skilled occupations, such as manufacturing and retail, but at the same time it creates high-skilled employment in IT-related fields. The economic effects of AI are similarly dual: an exacerbation of income inequality or the opening of new economic mobility pathways via expanded educational and skill-development opportunities. The impact of AI varies widely across sectors. The main discussion shows that while manufacturing has the highest risk of automation, healthcare and education face less job substitution than job augmentation. In addition, we locate an increasing need for technical AI skills on the one hand, and uniquely human capacities, including creativity and intelligence, on the other hand. We propose policy recommendations based on these insights, including ways to mitigate negative effects on lower-skilled workers. They are targeted at reskilling programs, education system reforms, and sector-specific transition strategies. Our work adds to the conversation about what the future of work might look like in an AI economy, and clarifies the pace at which we need to act to ensure that the rewards of AI are shared widely with society.
The Effect of Renewable Energy Use on the Transition to a Green Economy:An Applied Study on Jordan and Saudi Arabia
The transition from a traditional economy to a green economy depends on several economic sectors, the most important of which is the renewable energy sector. Accordingly, this study aims to examine the impact of renewable energy use on the transition to a green economy in Jordan and Saudi Arabia during the period 2000–2021, using panel data based on a pooled model. The findings reveal a positive and statistically significant effect of renewable energy use on the green economy index in the countries under study. A 1% increase in renewable energy use leads to a 0.204% rise in the green economy index in addition to the presence of a negative and statistically significant impact of non-renewable energy consumption on the green economy index in the study sample countries, as the increase in non-renewable energy consumption by (1%) leads to a decrease in the green economy index by (0.639%). The results of this study found that there is a positive and statistically significant effect of renewable energy use on the green economy index in the countries under study, as the increase in renewable energy use by (1%) leads to an increase in the green economy index by (0.204%) with the stability of other factors, The study recommends enhancing investment in the green economy by expanding the use of renewable energy, as higher investment in renewable energy contributes to stronger green economic performance. It further recommends adopting policies and strategies that take environmental requirements into account to promote innovation and green growth, as well as increasing economic incentives for activities related to the renewable energy sector.
The impact of the energy sector on the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector
The study aimed to demonstrate the role of the energy sector in enhancing the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector in Jordan. using panel data for the period (2011-2020). Descriptive and econometrics analysis was used to demonstrate the impact of the energy sector on three main indicators of the manufacturing sector, namely (profit margin index, worker productivity index, and energy efficiency). To assure the reliability and efficiency of the results, the study employed more than one method in the econometrics analysis, namely: generalized method of moment (GMM) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS). The findings showed that the energy sector factors had a negative influence on the profit margin; nevertheless, the effect was significant and positive on labor productivity and energy efficiency.
Uncertainty, Oil Price, and Volatility Regimes: A New Non-Recursive Identification Approach
During the last few decades, several studies have focused on examining the co-movements between oil prices and uncertainty. In this paper, we apply a new non-recursive identification approach to test whether macroeconomic and financial uncertainty precedes or follows changes in oil prices. Primarily, we explore the interaction between uncertainty and oil price changes across different volatility regimes. Our results indicate that macroeconomic and financial uncertainties are exogenous factors that influence the dynamics of oil prices. Furthermore, our findings reveal that during periods of macroeconomic or financial stability, the effects of uncertainty shocks on the oil market become more pronounced, indicating that such shocks can significantly contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations within the oil market. These findings could aid participants in the oil market by enhancing their understanding of how macroeconomic and financial uncertainties impact oil markets, providing them with a foundation for making decisions regarding risk management and portfolio optimization.
Aging Population and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from ARDL Approach
. Globally, there is a significant debate on the Aging population matter among the researchers and government authorities, however, its adverse impacts, specifically economic impacts, are a controversial issue. This paper intends to assess the long and short run impacts of population aging on the economic growth of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Using annul data for the period 1981-2021 and applying the “Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)” framework, we show that population again is indeed detrimental for the long run growth performance of KSA. On the other hand, age dependency has impacted the growth performance positively. Moreover, human capital and domestic investment have positively impacted economic growth which is consistent with prior theoretical and empirical literature. Furthermore, inflation rate has negatively influenced economic growth while trade openness has not had the desirable significant impact on economic growth. Moreover, the short run analysis shows that economic growth positively responds to changes in trade and domestic investment and negatively to changes in inflation rate. Finally, the causality analysis displayed several one-way and two-way causal relationships among the variables including the bidirectionality between population aging and economic growth. Our results have important policy implications for the policymakers of the economy of KSA.
Pilgrimage Tourism, Economic growth & Energy consumption: Their Impact on Carbon Emission in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 focuses on economic diversification and includes initiatives to enhance the pilgrimage experience for religious tourists while reducing CO2 emissions. Given the environmental challenges posed by tourism—particularly pilgrimage tourism—there is limited research on its impact on environmental change. This study addresses that gap by analysing the relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and pilgrimage tourism in Saudi Arabia, using annual time series data from 1996 to 2022. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Granger causality test, the results confirm significant long-term associations among these variables. The Johansen cointegration test shows a positive link between energy consumption and GDP growth, although an increase in pilgrim arrivals negatively affects carbon emissions. Specifically, as CO2 levels increase, pilgrimage tourism growth declines by 0.07%, indicating a negative cointegration effect. The VECM results suggest that economic growth and increased energy consumption awareness reduce carbon emissions, highlighting the potential of a circular carbon economy (CCE) consistent with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, pilgrimage tourism still contributes significantly to carbon emissions. These findings offer crucial policy implications for managing environmental concerns within the Vision 2030 framework.
An analytical study of the fish sector in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (1995-2021)
With government support for the fisheries sector, the amount of local fish production is growing, reaching about 177 thousand tons in 2021. This is due to the development of fish farming projects, which contributed about 64% of the amount of local fish production. However, there is a deficit in the fish trade balance as a result of relying on abroad to meet the population’s fish needs, as the amount of fish imports for 2021 amounted to about 160 thousand tons, which represents about 53% of the population's fish needs. This research aimed to analyze the fisheries sector in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The research relied on the quantitative descriptive analysis method, such as the minimum, maximum, arithmetic mean, standard deviation, and estimation of the relative coefficient of variation, and the use of the Phillips-Perron (PP) test to test the stationarity of time series, and the use of mathematical equations to estimate the periods of production sufficiency and import coverage for local consumption, in addition to the amount of surplus and deficit in consumption. The most important results of the study were:1- Growth in local fish production at an annual growth rate of about 4.6%, while production from saltwater fish farming grew by about 12.3%, while production from freshwater fish farming grew by about 8.4% of the general average.2- The growth of the deficit in the fish trade balance at an annual growth rate of about 4.2% Despite the growth in the quantity of fish exports, the quantity of fish imports is growing exponentially, as the annual growth rate reached about 5.12% of the general average.3The average period of sufficient production for local fish consumption was approximately 176day, while the period for imports to cover domestic fish consumption was approximately 227day.
Energy Transition and the Pathway to Sustainability in Saudi Arabia
This study aims to shed light on the energy transition model and the chances to move towards a sustainable development pathway in Saudi Arabia and achieve the Kingdom's Vision in decoupling economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions. The study employs the descriptive statistical approach to assess renewable energy and energy efficiency landscape in the Saudi Arabia, as well as the econometric approach to estimate the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and Co2 emissions in Saudi Arabia during the period (1980-2022). The study found that the energy transition program enjoys significant policy and legislative position in the country under the guidance of His Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The study also found that the progress made in the energy transition in the Kingdom is still modest compared to Arab countries and worldwide, despite the enormous potential that the country abounds with. Results of the econometric estimation showed that the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions is U-shaped, indicating that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (EKC) does not hold for Saudi Arabia. Results of the econometric analysis also revealed that energy consumption has a negative impact on environmental quality in Saudi Arabia. The study concludes with several recommendations, the most important of which is that achieving the goal of the Kingdom’s vision in decoupling economic growth from CO2 emissions requires continuing to promote investments in energy efficiency measures and a circular carbon economy.
Industrial Production and Carbon Emissions: A Comparative Analysis of Selected Arab and European Countries (1990–2023)
The study investigated the impact of industrial production on carbon emissions in selected European countries versus selected Arab countries. Using the econometrics methodology by applying the Granger Causality Test, (OLS) Model, Fixed Variable Panel data VS Random Variable Panel data models. The results showed that industrial production causes carbon emissions and vice versa in the EU countries, as for the case of Arab countries industrial production does not cause carbon emissions, this may reflect the differences between the volume of industrial production in each case, this result is consistent with (Abokyi et al., 2019), in addition there is an impact of industrial production on carbon emissions in both groups of countries, this means that every rise in industrial production leads to a corresponding rise in carbon emissions, which aligns well with the current reality and is supported by (Xiaoqing & Jianlan, 2011). The study recommends targeting sectors like chemicals, cement, and iron and steel petrochemicals, which account for over 70% of total emissions, aligning with the findings of (Brown et al., 2012). Alternatively, it is crucial to measure the emissions generated by industrial operations to comprehend the worldwide carbon balance and create an appropriate climate strategy, as stated by (Liu, 2016). The study also recommends stimulate an industrial investment environment compatible with environmental protection and carbon reduction considerations in Arab countries highlighting the importance of using new and renewable energy and clean technology in manufacturing from all countries of the world so that it can achieve sustainable development.